dangletech

The philosopher Isaiah Berlin wrote that there are two kinds of experts; hedgehogs and foxes.

Hedgehogs have figured out how the world works. They boast a focused central view, strong convictions and ideological leanings. They are certain about what they know and prone to argue in black and white terms. George W. Bush is a hedgehog as are most of news television’s expert-class, those Jim Cramer/Bill O’Reilly types called upon by the networks for opinions on the issues de jour. Certainty is their stock, and as this is a very compelling quality in uncertain times, hedgehogs are often very successful people.

Many high profile search consultants are hedgehogs. They are self-confident individuals with strong views about their profession and how to do it well. Their mental models are straight forward, simple and concise. They ‘know’ how to find winners who will thrive in your company and they are constantly in sell-mode whether it is themselves to clients, their clients to candidates or their candidates to clients. Hedgehog search consultants scoff at those who ‘over-think’ a business that in its essence is nothing more than finding ‘A’ players for their clients.

Foxes see the world differently. They are more cautious and likely to adjust their views to changing information. They are more pragmatic, prone to self-assessment and doubt, and more inclined to see nuance and subtlety all around them. To foxes, life has far too many moving parts to be squeezed into one grand theory of how it all works. Foxes dive into the well of complexity where they look for understanding and meaning. Barack Obama presents himself to be a fox.

Executive search foxes hand-craft each search using the materials and tools at their disposal. They do not sell and tell, but rather ask, probe and discuss. They see broad themes to companies and their issues but eschew hard rules or facile solutions. Students of their field, they share lessons learned, the experiences of others, successes and failures, processes and tools that help in effective decision-making. And as they try to reward clients with good search work, they also work to earn the trust of candidates through honesty and forthrightness. Earned trust lubricates much of their search success.

Philip Tetlock has studied both foxes and hedgehogs. In researching his book on political judgment he tracked some 82,000 predictions by so-called experts who self-selected themselves as either foxes or hedgehogs. For example, fox-like experts agree that “politics is more cloudlike than clocklike” and that, “even after making up my mind, I am always eager to consider different options”. Similarly, foxes disagree with statements like “it is annoying to listen to someone who cannot seem to make up his or her mind” or “I dislike questions that can be answered in many ways.” Needless to say, hedgehogs take the positions nearly opposite those of foxes.

Tetlock found that on average the predictions of experts were only slightly better than random guesses. Furthermore, the data did not vary by specialization (ie. political pundits versus business experts), education (PhDs versus high school graduates), age or gender. It did vary however between hedgehogs and foxes. Simply said, foxes get things right more often than hedgehogs.

Complex systems are by their very nature emergent and unpredictable. In executive search, companies are opaque, their individual needs contextual, and individuals who thrive in one will often fail in another. And no battery of psychological tests, competency models, or magic interview questions can ever guarantee anything. And this is why hedgehogs get themselves in trouble for their certainty is built on assumptions about how people and companies behave and interact. Their models depend on predictability, linearity and simplicity.  But as anyone who watched Jim Cramer struggle to explain to John Stewart why he and his peers missed the financial meltdown, life is never that predictable. So while they may pile up more hits on Google, hedgehogs invariably make more mistakes when the complex world fails to align with their models.

Someone once said that ‘the fox knows many things, the hedgehog knows one big thing’. Until such time as that one big thing solves the puzzle of marital bliss (corporate or for that matter personal) it is wise to be wary of executive search hedgehogs who peddle perfect solutions built on imperfect information. Your chance of a successful search is much better with the foxes.

Robert Hebert is Managing Partner of Toronto-based executive search firm StoneWood Group (http://www.stonewoodgroup.com). He can be reached @ .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or at 416.365.9494x777